New Delhi, India – The India-China relationship faces renewed challenges as Donald Trump prepares for a second term as U.S. president. With a history of unpredictable policies, Trump’s approach to China leaves Indian policymakers anxious about its impact on India’s interests.
Fragile Peace Amid Border Tensions
In October, India and China reached a fragile detente after four years of military standoffs. Both nations withdrew troops from key conflict zones. However, unresolved territorial disputes still loom large. Recently, China announced the creation of new counties, including areas claimed by India in Ladakh. India’s Ministry of External Affairs swiftly rejected these claims.
This fragile uneasy peace could face further strain under Trump’s policies. His unpredictability raises concerns for India’s strategy in the region.
Trump’s Ambiguous Stance on China
During his first term, Trump escalated tensions with China through a trade war by imposing heavy tariffs on Chinese goods. However, in contrast, his recent rhetoric toward China has softened. Notably, he invited Chinese President Xi Jinping to his inauguration, leaving some to question his stance. Meanwhile, Indian Prime Minister Modi did not receive a similar invitation, which, in turn, prompted satirical commentary in India.
Trump’s mixed messages create two key concerns for India. First, a more aggressive anti-China policy could force India into difficult decisions. Second, Trump might seek a “grand bargain” with China, potentially sidelining India’s interests.
Jayant Prasad, a former Indian diplomat, noted Trump’s tendency to “flatter enemies and unsettle friends.” This unpredictability could complicate India’s foreign policy.
Economic and Strategic Alliances
India faces growing pressure to balance economic interests with strategic objectives. After the 2020 Galwan Valley clashes, India banned Chinese apps and scrutinized Chinese investments. Yet, economic realities have pushed India to reconsider its stance. In 2024, India’s Ministry of Finance suggested re-engaging with Chinese investors to boost foreign investment.
Simultaneously, India is strengthening ties with the U.S. through the Quad alliance, which includes Japan and Australia. The Quad, in turn, aims to counter China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific. Moreover, Modi plans to host a Quad summit in 2025 to further cement U.S. support. However, Trump’s ties with industrialists like Elon Musk could, consequently, reduce his hostility toward China. This, in turn, presents a significant challenge for India.
A Strategic Dilemma for India
India’s strategic dilemma lies in navigating U.S.-China rivalry. Closer ties with the U.S. have strengthened India’s position against China. Yet, Trump’s unpredictability and potential shift toward China could leave India vulnerable.
“India faces two threats,” said Christopher Clary, a fellow at the Stimson Center. “Trump’s trade policies may pressure India, or his deal-making with China could isolate it.”
Modi’s Foreign Policy Test
Prime Minister Modi will face a tough challenge in Trump’s second term. The Quad and other multilateral platforms offer opportunities for cooperation. Yet, India must be cautious not to be caught between the U.S. and China.
India’s recent response to China’s territorial claims shows it seeks to assert its sovereignty without escalating conflict. However, as Trump’s second term approaches, India must, therefore, prepare for the uncertainty that lies ahead. It will need to adapt through stronger alliances, strategic cooperation, and careful diplomacy.
As the world watches, India must decide how to navigate Trump’s second term and its impact on India-China relations. Time will tell whether India can maintain its balance in a shifting geopolitical landscape.
